Clinical Research Study
Predictors of Significant Short-Term Increases in Blood Pressure in a Community-Based Population

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amjmed.2007.06.021Get rights and content

Abstract

Background

Blood pressure predicts the risk of cardiovascular disease events in a linear, graded manner. Factors associated with significant short-term increases in blood pressure are not well established. We aimed to identify predictors of a significant increase in blood pressure over a 1-year period among nonhypertensive, community-dwelling adults.

Methods

From the community-based Heart Strategies Concentrating on Risk Evaluation study, 509 nonhypertensive adults (mean age 58 years; 68% were female; 24% were black) had baseline and 1-year assessments of blood pressure. Demographics, medical history, anthropometrics, lipids/lipoproteins, physical activity, and psychologic status were measured at both intervals. A “significant” increase in blood pressure was defined as an increase in systolic blood pressure of greater than 20 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure of greater than 10 mm Hg, or initiation of antihypertensive medication.

Results

At 1 year, 22% of participants had a significant increase in blood pressure. In multivariable analysis, baseline body mass index (BMI) and a greater than 5% increase in weight or waist circumference were associated with a significant increase in blood pressure (adjusted relative risk 2.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-3.21). The adverse effect of an increase in weight and waist circumference on blood pressure was evident in subgroup analyses by age, race, baseline BMI, and regular exercise.

Conclusions

Baseline BMI and a greater than 5% increase in weight or waist circumference over 1 year are associated with a significant increase in blood pressure. These data emphasize the need for weight maintenance. They also serve to stratify individuals who may benefit from close clinical observation and preventive intervention.

Section snippets

Source Population

The source population consists of 2000 participants enrolled in the Heart SCORE study. Heart SCORE is an ongoing single-center, prospective, community-based participatory research cohort study. Baseline enrollment began on June 16, 2003 and was completed on October 11, 2006. Eligibility criteria include age 45 to 75 years, residence in the greater Pittsburgh metropolitan area, ability to undergo baseline and annual follow-up visits, and absence of known comorbidities expected to limit life

Results

At baseline, 202 of the 509 study participants (39.7%) had normal blood pressure and the remaining 307 participants (60.3%) were prehypertensive. By using the primary outcome definition, 114 of the 509 participants (22.4%) experienced a clinically “significant” increase in blood pressure from the baseline to 1-year assessment. This included 18 participants (3.5%) with an increase in systolic blood pressure of greater than 20 mm Hg, 56 participants (11.0%) with an increase in diastolic blood

Discussion

Our results indicate that in a diverse community cohort of nonhypertensive individuals, baseline BMI and changes in weight and/or waist circumference over a 1-year period are independent predictors of a significant increase in blood pressure. These findings extend previous associations between weight and blood pressure5, 6 because they indicate that regardless of baseline BMI, increases in weight and/or waist circumference are independent predictors of increases in blood pressure over 1 year.

Conclusion

Our results demonstrate that baseline BMI and 1-year changes in weight and waist circumference are independent predictors of a clinically significant increase in blood pressure over 1 year among individuals without hypertension. Moreover, these variables remain predictive across race, gender, and all classes of BMI. These findings serve to stratify individuals who may benefit from close clinical observation and preventive intervention as published in previously conducted trials.21, 22

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  • Cited by (22)

    • Usefulness of the American Heart Association's Ideal Cardiovascular Health Measure to Predict Long-term Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events (From the Heart SCORE Study)

      2021, American Journal of Cardiology
      Citation Excerpt :

      All subjects provided written informed consent. The Heart Strategies Concentrating on Risk Evaluation study has been previously described.5,6 Briefly, this community-based participatory study began in 2003 in Allegheny County, PA with aims to improve risk stratification, identify racial disparities, and evaluate mechanisms for population differences in CVD.

    View all citing articles on Scopus

    The authors have no conflict of interests to report.

    This project is funded in part by a grant with the Pennsylvania Department of Health (Contract ME-02-384). The department specifically disclaims responsibility for any analyses, interpretations, or conclusions.

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